Chiefs vs Broncos — Week 8, 2018
The Chiefs took over leading 30-23 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at the Broncos 37, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 30, Broncos 23. Chiefs won 30-23 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Broncos territory, 1:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.1% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 98.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:47) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to DEN 37 for 5 yards (58-V.Miller; 94-D.Peko).
- (1:41) 27-K.Hunt left tackle to DEN 34 for 3 yards (55-B.Chubb).
- (:59) 27-K.Hunt right guard to DEN 32 for 2 yards (95-D.Wolfe).
- (:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 17 yards to DEN 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-44-D.O'Daniel.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.95 pts |
| Field goal | -1.14 pts |
| Quick out | -1.29 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.31 pts |
| QB keep | -1.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.77 pts |
| Play action | -3.19 pts |
| Curl route | -3.63 pts |
| End-around | -5.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.70 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.67 pts |
| Deep post | -9.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.