Giants vs Bears — Week 13, 2018
The Giants took over leading 24-17 with 2:19 left, 1st & 10 at the Bears 13, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Giants 27, Bears 27. Tied 27-27 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At the Bears 13, 2:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.4% for Giants. Our model starts at 98.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:19) 26-S.Barkley right guard to CHI 10 for 3 yards (59-D.Trevathan, 98-B.Nichols).
- (2:05) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to CHI 19 for 1 yard (59-D.Trevathan).
- (1:59) 26-S.Barkley right guard to CHI 19 for no gain (38-A.Amos, 52-K.Mack).
- (1:53) 2-A.Rosas 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.47 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.47 pts |
| Field goal | +0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.00 pts |
| Quick out | -1.33 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.34 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.34 pts |
| QB keep | -1.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.81 pts |
| Play action | -3.26 pts |
| Curl route | -3.74 pts |
| End-around | -5.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.81 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.78 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.71 pts |
| Deep post | -9.75 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.