Chargers vs Seahawks — Week 9, 2018
The Chargers took over leading 25-17 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 47, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 25, Seahawks 17. Chargers won 25-17 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.6% for Chargers. Our model starts at 98.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) 28-M.Gordon right end to 50 for 3 yards (54-B.Wagner, 90-J.Reed).
- (1:43) 28-M.Gordon left tackle to 50 for no gain (98-S.Stephen, 54-B.Wagner).
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 40 for -10 yards (90-J.Reed).
- (1:33) 5-D.Jones punts 43 yards to SEA 17, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds. PENALTY on LAC-24-T.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 17.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.49 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.98 pts |
| Quick out | -1.31 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.32 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.33 pts |
| QB keep | -1.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.79 pts |
| Play action | -3.22 pts |
| Curl route | -3.67 pts |
| End-around | -5.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.74 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.71 pts |
| Deep post | -9.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.