Patriots vs Texans — Week 1, 2018
The Patriots took over leading 27-20 with 2:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 27, Texans 20. Patriots won 27-20 — the drive turned it over.
Patriots ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 2:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.1% for Patriots. Our model starts at 95.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:08) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle to NE 27 for 2 yards (92-B.Dunn).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 46-J.Develin to NE 37 for 10 yards (24-J.Joseph).
- (1:49) 34-R.Burkhead left guard to NE 38 for 1 yard (92-B.Dunn; 55-B.McKinney).
- (1:44) 34-R.Burkhead right guard to NE 45 for 7 yards (22-A.Colvin).
- (1:39) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle to NE 45 for no gain (55-B.McKinney).
- (:51) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to HOU 1, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -1.05 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.10 pts |
| QB keep | -1.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -2.81 pts |
| Curl route | -3.16 pts |
| End-around | -5.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.34 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.25 pts |
| Deep post | -8.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.12 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.