Bears vs Lions — Week 12, 2018
The Bears took over leading 23-16 with 1:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Bears 23, Lions 16. Bears won 23-16 — the drive time expired.
Bears ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 20, 1:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.5% for Bears. Our model starts at 96.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:07) 24-J.Howard up the middle to CHI 21 for 1 yard (40-J.Davis; 95-R.Okwara).
- (1:03) 24-J.Howard left end to CHI 21 for no gain (28-Q.Diggs).
- (1:00) 79-B.Sowell reported in as eligible. 29-T.Cohen up the middle to CHI 31 for 10 yards (52-C.Jones).
- (:13) 4-C.Daniel kneels to CHI 30 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.81 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.77 pts |
| Quick out | -1.14 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.18 pts |
| QB keep | -1.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.53 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.96 pts |
| Curl route | -3.34 pts |
| End-around | -5.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.42 pts |
| Deep post | -9.23 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.