Saints vs Steelers — Week 16, 2018
The Saints took over trailing 28-24 with 4:06 left, 1st & 10 at the Steelers 46, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 31, Steelers 28. Saints won 31-28 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. Near midfield, 4:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.8% for Saints. Our model starts at 38.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:06) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 89-J.Hill to PIT 41 for 5 yards (42-M.Burnett). Pass 4, YAC 1
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 19-T.Ginn to PIT 34 for 7 yards (28-M.Hilton). Pass 7, YAC 0
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep right to 41-A.Kamara.
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short right.
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to PIT 26 for 8 yards (23-J.Haden). Pass 8, YAC 0
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep left to 19-T.Ginn (24-C.Sensabaugh).
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Kirkwood.
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn to PIT 7 for 25 yards (21-S.Davis). Pass 20, YAC 5
- (1:33) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas to PIT 2 for 5 yards (23-J.Haden). Pass 3, YAC 2
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to PIT 1 for 1 yard (23-J.Haden). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.27 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.27 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.10 pts |
| QB keep | +1.08 pts |
| Quick out | +0.48 pts |
| Play action | +0.46 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.75 pts |
| Deep post | -0.76 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.92 pts |
| Inside run | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| End-around | -1.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.44 pts |
| Spike it | -2.80 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.