Titans vs Jets — Week 13, 2018
The Titans took over trailing 22-19 with 3:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Titans 26, Jets 22. Titans won 26-22 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 3:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 36.7% for Titans. Our model starts at 31.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 13-T.Taylor to TEN 25 for 5 yards (33-J.Adams).
- (3:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right.
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Taylor.
- (3:21) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NYJ 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.28 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.02 pts |
| QB keep | +0.96 pts |
| Play action | +0.46 pts |
| Quick out | +0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Deep post | -0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| End-around | -1.84 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.91 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.24 pts |
| Spike it | -2.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.