Jaguars vs Titans — Week 3, 2018
The Jaguars took over trailing 9-6 with 4:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 6, Titans 9. Titans won 9-6 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.1% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 33.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:05) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles left end pushed ob at JAX 33 for 8 yards (59-W.Woodyard). TEN-55-J.Brown was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at JAX 28 for -5 yards (99-J.Casey). FUMBLES (99-J.Casey), recovered by JAX-65-B.Linder at JAX 29. 65-B.Linder to JAX 29 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard).
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles up the middle to JAX 32 for 3 yards (98-B.Orakpo).
- (2:51) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-C.Tinker. 18-R.Matthews to TEN 24 for 1 yard (41-T.Herndon).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.21 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.98 pts |
| QB keep | +0.95 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.28 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Deep post | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.62 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| End-around | -1.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.13 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.