Broncos vs Texans — Week 9, 2018
The Broncos took over trailing 19-17 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 17, Texans 19. Texans won 19-17 — the drive missed field goal.
Broncos ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 14, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.3% for Broncos. Our model starts at 36.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) 30-P.Lindsay right guard to DEN 20 for 6 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
- (2:57) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right.
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 82-J.Heuerman to DEN 31 for 11 yards (31-N.Jamerson).
- (2:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short middle to 81-T.Patrick (57-B.Scarlett).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 23-D.Booker to DEN 39 for 8 yards (20-J.Reid).
- (2:01) (No Huddle) 23-D.Booker up the middle to DEN 40 for 1 yard (92-B.Dunn).
- (1:55) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 82-J.Heuerman to DEN 43 for 3 yards (20-J.Reid).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 81-T.Patrick to DEN 45 for 17 yards (43-S.Wright).
- (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 10-E.Sanders.
- (:54) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 10-E.Sanders.
- (:50) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders to HOU 37 for 18 yards (20-J.Reid) [59-W.Mercilus].
- (:43) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 82-J.Heuerman to HOU 32 for 5 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.16 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.20 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.44 pts |
| QB keep | -0.76 pts |
| Play action | -0.87 pts |
| Quick out | -1.14 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.21 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.41 pts |
| Deep post | -1.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.76 pts |
| Outside run | -1.77 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.81 pts |
| Inside run | -2.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.60 pts |
| Spike it | -2.77 pts |
| End-around | -3.23 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.29 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.