Raiders vs Cardinals — Week 11, 2018
The Raiders took over trailing 21-20 with 4:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 23, Cardinals 21. Raiders won 23-21 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.2% for Raiders. Our model starts at 46.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:57) (Shotgun) 30-J.Richard left tackle to LV 26 for 1 yard (57-J.Bynes; 43-H.Reddick).
- (4:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 88-M.Ateman to LV 26 for no gain (57-J.Bynes).
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 10-S.Roberts.
- (3:50) 5-J.Townsend punts 52 yards to ARI 22, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at ARI 40 for 18 yards (25-E.Harris).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.43 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.81 pts |
| QB keep | +0.67 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.54 pts |
| Curl route | +0.45 pts |
| Quick out | +0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.02 pts |
| Play action | -0.18 pts |
| Outside run | -0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.96 pts |
| Deep post | -2.30 pts |
| End-around | -2.39 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.43 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.