Dolphins vs Colts — Week 12, 2018
The Dolphins took over tied at 24 with 4:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 24, Colts 27. Colts won 27-24 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, even score — any score wins it. Backed up at their own 6, 4:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.2% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 52.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:20) 21-F.Gore up the middle to MIA 6 for no gain (92-M.Hunt).
- (3:39) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-D.Parker to MIA 6 for no gain (49-M.Adams). Penalty on MIA-10-K.Stills, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 32-K.Drake up the middle to MIA 10 for 4 yards (34-M.Mitchell).
- (2:50) 2-M.Haack punts 62 yards to IND 28, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-C.Rogers to IND 42 for 14 yards (35-W.Aikens).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.61 pts |
| Outside run | -1.67 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.77 pts |
| QB keep | -1.79 pts |
| Quick out | -1.80 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.86 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.43 pts |
| Curl route | -2.73 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Play action | -3.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.89 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.30 pts |
| End-around | -4.31 pts |
| Deep post | -4.48 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.