Colts vs Giants — Week 16, 2018
The Colts took over trailing 27-21 with 3:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 47, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Colts 28, Giants 27. Colts won 28-27 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. Near midfield, 3:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.9% for Colts. Our model starts at 22.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 25-M.Mack (59-L.Carter).
- (3:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 13-T.Hilton to NYG 46 for 7 yards (34-G.Haley, 93-B.Goodson).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck scrambles left end ran ob at NYG 30 for 14 yards (35-C.Riley).
- (2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 80-C.Rogers to NYG 27 for 3 yards (34-G.Haley).
- (2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 15-D.Inman to NYG 18 for 9 yards (35-C.Riley).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 21-N.Hines to NYG 20 for -2 yards (93-B.Goodson).
- (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton to NYG 8 for 12 yards (31-M.Thomas) [95-B.Hill].
- (:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 80-C.Rogers for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.37 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.08 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.03 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.01 pts |
| QB keep | +0.89 pts |
| Play action | +0.58 pts |
| Deep post | +0.57 pts |
| Quick out | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.20 pts |
| Inside run | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| End-around | -1.49 pts |
| Spike it | -2.08 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.