Jets vs Browns — Week 3, 2018
The Jets took over trailing 21-17 with 2:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Jets 17, Browns 21. Browns won 21-17 — the drive turnover.
Jets ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.7% for Jets. Our model starts at 22.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 81-Q.Enunwa (95-M.Garrett).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-R.Anderson pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 5 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right.
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-J.Kearse to NYJ 37 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).
- (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-J.Kearse INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Schobert at NYJ 43. 53-J.Schobert to NYJ 43 for no gain.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.83 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.37 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.28 pts |
| Deep post | +1.23 pts |
| QB keep | +1.13 pts |
| Play action | +0.89 pts |
| Quick out | +0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.52 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.38 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.78 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.79 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -1.36 pts |
| End-around | -1.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Spike it | -2.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.