Rams vs Chiefs — Week 11, 2018
The Rams took over trailing 51-47 with 2:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Rams 54, Chiefs 51. Rams won 54-51 — the drive scored.
Rams ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:47 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.8% for Rams. Our model starts at 21.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff scrambles up the middle to LA 26 for 1 yard (55-D.Ford).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Reynolds (22-O.Scandrick).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 12-B.Cooks ran ob at LA 48 for 22 yards (38-R.Parker).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 81-G.Everett ran ob at 50 for 2 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at KC 40 for 10 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 81-G.Everett for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.58 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.19 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.13 pts |
| QB keep | +1.00 pts |
| Deep post | +0.92 pts |
| Play action | +0.74 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.21 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.90 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.93 pts |
| Inside run | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| End-around | -1.40 pts |
| Spike it | -2.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.