Giants vs Jaguars — Week 1, 2018
The Giants took over trailing 20-15 with 4:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Giants 15, Jaguars 20. Jaguars won 20-15 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Giants ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 19, 4:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.8% for Giants. Our model starts at 19.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham ran ob at NYG 40 for 21 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
- (4:03) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right end to NYG 41 for 1 yard (42-B.Church).
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham to JAX 40 for 19 yards (42-B.Church).
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.Shepard.
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 28-J.Stewart left guard to JAX 36 for 4 yards (50-Tel.Smith, 97-M.Jackson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 88-E.Engram (42-B.Church).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.Shepard (25-D.Hayden).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.85 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.57 pts |
| QB keep | +0.46 pts |
| Deep post | +0.24 pts |
| Play action | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.10 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Outside run | -0.84 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.19 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.25 pts |
| Inside run | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| End-around | -1.52 pts |
| Spike it | -1.85 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.