Texans vs Titans — Week 2, 2018
The Texans took over trailing 20-17 with 1:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Texans 17, Titans 20. Titans won 20-17 — the drive time expired.
Texans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:00 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.6% for Texans. Our model starts at 23.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Hopkins (21-M.Butler).
- (:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 26-L.Miller to HOU 29 for 4 yards (24-K.Vaccaro).
- (:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 48 for 19 yards (31-K.Byard).
- (:18) (No Huddle) 4-D.Watson spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins to TEN 21 for 31 yards (21-M.Butler).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.26 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.71 pts |
| Deep post | +1.69 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.57 pts |
| QB keep | +1.39 pts |
| Play action | +1.17 pts |
| Quick out | +0.81 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.66 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.62 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.64 pts |
| Outside run | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -1.48 pts |
| End-around | -1.58 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.68 pts |
| Spike it | -2.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.