Bengals vs Falcons — Week 4, 2018
The Bengals took over trailing 36-31 with 4:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 37, Falcons 36. Bengals won 37-36 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.9% for Bengals. Our model starts at 19.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:15) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard left guard to CIN 29 for 4 yards (59-D.Campbell).
- (3:37) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Boyd (21-D.Trufant).
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 83-T.Boyd to CIN 38 for 9 yards (21-D.Trufant; 34-B.Poole).
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard left guard to CIN 41 for 3 yards (95-JA.Crawford).
- (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton scrambles left end ran ob at ATL 48 for 11 yards (54-F.Oluokun).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to ATL 37 for 11 yards (33-B.Wreh-Wilson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton scrambles left tackle to ATL 35 for 2 yards (34-B.Poole).
- (1:30) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at ATL 43 for -8 yards (44-V.Beasley). FUMBLES (44-V.Beasley), and recovers at ATL 43. 14-A.Dalton to ATL 43 for no gain (95-JA.Crawford). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Boyd.
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep middle to 83-T.Boyd (21-D.Trufant).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to ATL 24 for 11 yards (21-D.Trufant).
- (:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 12-A.Erickson to ATL 26 for 8 yards (27-D.Kazee).
- (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah pushed ob at ATL 20 for 6 yards (59-D.Campbell).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.07 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.07 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.79 pts |
| QB keep | +0.70 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Deep post | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.14 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.10 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| End-around | -1.37 pts |
| Spike it | -1.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.