Seahawks vs Packers — Week 11, 2018
The Seahawks took over leading 27-24 with 4:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 27, Packers 24. Seahawks won 27-24 — the drive time expired.
Seahawks ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 20, 4:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.6% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 74.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:11) (Shotgun) 27-M.Davis up the middle to SEA 25 for 5 yards (52-C.Matthews).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson left end to SEA 33 for 8 yards (38-T.Williams).
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 27-M.Davis up the middle to SEA 37 for 4 yards (44-A.Morrison; 50-B.Martinez).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 27-M.Davis up the middle to SEA 44 for 7 yards (27-J.Jones).
- (2:00) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson kneels to SEA 43 for -1 yards.
- (1:19) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson kneels to SEA 42 for -1 yards.
- (:37) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson kneels to SEA 41 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.78 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.78 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.32 pts |
| Outside run | +0.13 pts |
| QB keep | -0.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.24 pts |
| Quick out | -0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Curl route | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Play action | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.60 pts |
| End-around | -3.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.20 pts |
| Deep post | -5.83 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.57 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.