Broncos vs Seahawks — Week 1, 2018
The Broncos took over leading 27-24 with 3:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 27, Seahawks 24. Broncos won 27-24 — the drive turned it over.
Broncos ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 19, 3:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.3% for Broncos. Our model starts at 76.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:28) 28-R.Freeman up the middle to DEN 36 for 17 yards (29-E.Thomas).
- (3:16) 28-R.Freeman left end to DEN 41 for 5 yards (37-T.Flowers).
- (3:10) 28-R.Freeman right tackle to SEA 44 for 15 yards (29-E.Thomas; 37-T.Flowers).
- (2:24) 28-R.Freeman left guard to SEA 44 for no gain (98-S.Stephen).
- (2:00) 30-P.Lindsay right guard to SEA 41 for 3 yards (58-A.Calitro).
- (1:55) 30-P.Lindsay right guard to SEA 39 for 2 yards (58-A.Calitro).
- (1:08) 1-M.King punts 27 yards to SEA 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.85 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.85 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.24 pts |
| Outside run | +0.09 pts |
| QB keep | -0.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.27 pts |
| Quick out | -0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Curl route | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Play action | -1.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.67 pts |
| End-around | -3.76 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.29 pts |
| Deep post | -5.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.73 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.