Jaguars vs Colts — Week 13, 2018
The Jaguars took over leading 6-0 with 2:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 6, Colts 0. Jaguars won 6-0 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 29, 2:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.6% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 92.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:34) 24-T.Yeldon up the middle to JAX 33 for 4 yards (50-A.Walker).
- (2:29) 24-T.Yeldon up the middle to JAX 34 for 1 yard (53-D.Leonard).
- (2:25) 6-C.Kessler scrambles up the middle to JAX 38 for 4 yards (50-A.Walker).
- (2:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 15, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.29 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.50 pts |
| Quick out | -0.91 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.95 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.99 pts |
| QB keep | -1.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| Play action | -2.57 pts |
| Curl route | -2.85 pts |
| End-around | -4.93 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.97 pts |
| Deep post | -8.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.78 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.