Chiefs vs Chargers — Week 15, 2018
The Chiefs took over leading 28-21 with 3:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 28, Chargers 29. Chargers won 29-28 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 11, 3:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.8% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 91.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:43) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams left end to KC 8 for -3 yards (93-D.Philon).
- (3:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill to KC 13 for 5 yards (31-A.Phillips; 20-D.King).
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 6 for -2 yards (sack split by 98-I.Rochell and 54-M.Ingram).
- (2:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to LAC 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 39, and recovers at LAC 40. 20-D.King to LAC 40 for no gain (35-C.Ward).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.82 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.13 pts |
| Quick out | -1.49 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.51 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.51 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| QB keep | -1.81 pts |
| Play action | -3.04 pts |
| Curl route | -3.36 pts |
| End-around | -5.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.26 pts |
| Deep post | -8.73 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.82 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.