Eagles vs Jaguars — Week 8, 2018
The Eagles took over leading 24-18 with 3:36 left, 1st & 10 at the Jaguars 48, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 24, Jaguars 18. Eagles won 24-18 — the drive time expired.
Eagles ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 3:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.1% for Eagles. Our model starts at 93.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:36) 28-W.Smallwood right guard to JAX 48 for no gain (93-C.Campbell; 56-D.Fowler).
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 80-J.Matthews to JAX 35 for 13 yards (50-Tel.Smith).
- (3:23) 28-W.Smallwood right guard to JAX 34 for 1 yard (48-L.Jacobs).
- (2:38) 28-W.Smallwood left guard to JAX 24 for 10 yards (39-T.Gipson).
- (2:00) 11-C.Wentz kneels to JAX 25 for -1 yards.
- (1:11) 11-C.Wentz kneels to JAX 26 for -1 yards.
- (:40) 11-C.Wentz kneels to JAX 27 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.79 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.59 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.06 pts |
| QB keep | -1.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Play action | -2.68 pts |
| Curl route | -2.99 pts |
| End-around | -5.00 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.20 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.08 pts |
| Deep post | -8.70 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.79 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.