Packers vs Jets — Week 16, 2018
The Packers took over trailing 35-30 with 3:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Packers 38, Jets 38. Tied 38-38 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 17, 3:12 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.7% for Packers. Our model starts at 15.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Williams pushed ob at GB 21 for 4 yards (21-M.Claiborne).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-J.Graham to GB 37 for 16 yards (54-A.Williamson).
- (2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling.
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 16-J.Kumerow pushed ob at 50 for 13 yards (22-T.Johnson).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Williams to NYJ 24 for 26 yards (51-B.Copeland).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams (41-B.Skrine).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end to NYJ 1 for 23 yards (33-J.Adams).
- (1:32) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 45-D.Vitale [46-N.Hewitt].
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling.
- (1:23) (Shotgun) 30-J.Williams up the middle to NYJ 1 for no gain (50-F.Luvu).
- (1:16) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-A.Rodgers rushes right guard. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.65 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.65 pts |
| Deep post | +0.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.39 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.24 pts |
| QB keep | +0.09 pts |
| Play action | +0.04 pts |
| Quick out | -0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.20 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.44 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.75 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.80 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.03 pts |
| Outside run | -1.12 pts |
| Inside run | -1.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Spike it | -1.59 pts |
| End-around | -1.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.