Steelers vs Broncos — Week 12, 2018
The Steelers took over trailing 24-17 with 4:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 44, 1 timeout in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 17, Broncos 24. Broncos won 24-17 — the drive turnover.
Steelers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 44, 4:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.0% for Steelers. Our model starts at 16.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 38 for -6 yards (58-V.Miller).
- (3:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster pushed ob at DEN 43 for 19 yards (31-J.Simmons).
- (3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 10-R.Switzer (25-C.Harris).
- (3:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 10-R.Switzer to DEN 39 for 4 yards (25-C.Harris).
- (2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster pushed ob at DEN 20 for 19 yards (41-I.Yiadom).
- (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown to DEN 15 for 5 yards (25-C.Harris).
- (2:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger scrambles left end pushed ob at DEN 3 for 12 yards (99-A.Gotsis).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster.
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner left tackle to DEN 2 for 1 yard (51-T.Davis; 96-S.Harris).
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 96-S.Harris at DEN 0. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.00 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.73 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.72 pts |
| QB keep | +0.63 pts |
| Deep post | +0.47 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.84 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.89 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.13 pts |
| End-around | -1.16 pts |
| Spike it | -1.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.