49ers vs Bears — Week 16, 2018
The 49ers took over trailing 14-9 with 1:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 9, Bears 14. Bears won 14-9 — the drive turned it over on downs.
49ers ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 24, 1:52 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.8% for 49ers. Our model starts at 13.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Goodwin [94-L.Floyd]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne pushed ob at SF 49 for 25 yards (59-D.Trevathan). Penalty on CHI-94-L.Floyd, Defensive Holding, declined. Caught at SF 28. 21-YAC
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to CHI 45 for 6 yards (58-R.Smith; 38-A.Amos). Caught at CHI47. 2-YAC
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep left to 85-G.Kittle.
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete short right to 85-G.Kittle.
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Goodwin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.38 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.41 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.38 pts |
| Deep post | +1.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.99 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.89 pts |
| QB keep | +0.77 pts |
| Play action | +0.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.44 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.43 pts |
| Quick out | +0.42 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| End-around | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Spike it | -1.41 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.