Bengals vs Steelers — Week 6, 2018
The Bengals took over trailing 20-14 with 3:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 21, Steelers 28. Steelers won 28-21 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.7% for Bengals. Our model starts at 14.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 18-A.Green.
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 28-J.Mixon to CIN 31 for 6 yards (98-V.Williams).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 87-C.Uzomah to CIN 36 for 5 yards (20-C.Sutton).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep right to 28-J.Mixon.
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to PIT 34 for 16 yards (20-C.Sutton).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep right to 16-C.Core.
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 18-A.Green to PIT 11 for 23 yards (21-S.Davis).
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green ran ob at PIT 4 for 7 yards.
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.07 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.76 pts |
| Deep post | +0.72 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.72 pts |
| QB keep | +0.62 pts |
| Play action | +0.43 pts |
| Quick out | +0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.11 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.64 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.68 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| End-around | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Spike it | -1.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.