Browns vs Bengals — Week 16, 2018
The Browns took over leading 26-18 with 2:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 16, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Browns 26, Bengals 18. Browns won 26-18 — the drive time expired.
Browns ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 16, 2:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.1% for Browns. Our model starts at 95.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:52) 24-N.Chubb left guard to CLE 20 for 4 yards (75-J.Willis). PENALTY on CIN-79-C.Ringo, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 20.
- (2:48) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to CLE 31 for 6 yards (90-M.Johnson).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 85-D.Njoku pushed ob at CIN 3 for 66 yards (56-H.Nickerson).
- (1:47) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to CIN 4 for -1 yards.
- (1:06) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to CIN 5 for -1 yards.
- (:34) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to CIN 6 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.03 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.03 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.91 pts |
| Quick out | -1.29 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.31 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.31 pts |
| QB keep | -1.61 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Play action | -3.04 pts |
| Curl route | -3.42 pts |
| End-around | -5.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.52 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.44 pts |
| Deep post | -9.18 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.