Bears vs Vikings — Week 11, 2018
The Bears took over leading 22-14 with 4:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Bears 25, Vikings 20. Bears won 25-20 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.2% for Bears. Our model starts at 92.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:45) 24-J.Howard left end to CHI 27 for 2 yards (20-M.Alexander).
- (4:04) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short middle to 12-A.Robinson II (20-M.Alexander).
- (3:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 12-A.Robinson II to CHI 44 for 17 yards (22-H.Smith).
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky left end to CHI 49 for 5 yards (22-H.Smith). PENALTY on MIN-22-H.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 49.
- (3:06) 24-J.Howard left guard to MIN 34 for 2 yards (97-E.Griffen).
- (3:00) 24-J.Howard right guard to MIN 30 for 4 yards (41-A.Harris).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 29-T.Cohen.
- (2:52) 1-C.Parkey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.24 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.79 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.68 pts |
| Quick out | -1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -2.77 pts |
| Curl route | -3.08 pts |
| End-around | -5.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.26 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.13 pts |
| Deep post | -8.73 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.90 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.79 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.