Vikings vs Packers — Week 12, 2018
The Vikings took over leading 24-17 with 2:19 left, 1st & 10 at the Packers 41, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 24, Packers 17. Vikings won 24-17 — the drive time expired.
Vikings ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Packers territory, 2:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.0% for Vikings. Our model starts at 97.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:19) 25-L.Murray left tackle to GB 40 for 1 yard (39-I.Campbell).
- (2:15) 69-R.Hill reported in as eligible. 25-L.Murray right end to GB 37 for 3 yards (50-B.Martinez, 38-T.Williams).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 14-S.Diggs to GB 27 for 10 yards (28-T.Brown).
- (1:14) 8-K.Cousins kneels to GB 28 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 8-K.Cousins kneels to GB 29 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.66 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.90 pts |
| Quick out | -1.25 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.26 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.27 pts |
| QB keep | -1.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Field goal | -1.82 pts |
| Play action | -3.12 pts |
| Curl route | -3.54 pts |
| End-around | -5.53 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.59 pts |
| Deep post | -9.45 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.