Buccaneers vs Saints — Week 1, 2018
The Buccaneers took over leading 48-40 with 3:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 48, Saints 40. Buccaneers won 48-40 — the drive time expired.
Buccaneers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 3:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.9% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 94.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:31) 25-P.Barber left tackle to TB 21 for -4 yards (53-A.Klein). Penalty on TB-69-D.Dotson, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (3:27) 25-P.Barber left guard to TB 24 for 3 yards (51-M.Te'o).
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles left end to TB 36 for 12 yards (47-A.Anzalone).
- (2:00) 14-R.Fitzpatrick kneels to TB 35 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 14-R.Fitzpatrick kneels to TB 35 for no gain.
- (:37) 14-R.Fitzpatrick kneels to TB 34 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.10 pts |
| Outside run | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -2.85 pts |
| Curl route | -3.21 pts |
| End-around | -5.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.37 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.28 pts |
| Deep post | -8.99 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.13 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.