Ravens vs Chargers — Week 16, 2018
The Ravens took over leading 16-10 with 4:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 2, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 22, Chargers 10. Ravens won 22-10 — the drive turned it over.
Ravens ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 2, 4:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 83.6% for Ravens. Our model starts at 87.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:35) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to BAL 4 for 2 yards (42-U.Nwosu).
- (4:01) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards left tackle to BAL 7 for 3 yards (92-B.Mebane; 57-J.Brown).
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 6 for -1 yards (93-D.Philon).
- (3:12) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to LAC 37, Center-46-M.Cox. 20-D.King to BAL 39 for 24 yards (10-C.Moore, 54-T.Bowser).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.65 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.88 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.93 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.29 pts |
| Quick out | -1.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.60 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.79 pts |
| QB keep | -1.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.12 pts |
| Play action | -3.34 pts |
| Curl route | -3.77 pts |
| End-around | -5.18 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.50 pts |
| Deep post | -8.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.14 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.