49ers vs Cardinals — Week 8, 2018
The 49ers took over leading 15-10 with 4:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 15, Cardinals 18. Cardinals won 18-15 — the drive turned it over.
49ers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 30, 4:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.6% for 49ers. Our model starts at 84.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:44) 22-M.Breida up the middle to SF 32 for 2 yards (44-M.Golden).
- (4:06) 22-M.Breida right end to SF 33 for 1 yard (44-M.Golden). PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at SF 33.
- (3:59) 46-A.Morris right tackle to SF 40 for 2 yards (72-O.Pierre; 90-R.Nkemdiche).
- (3:16) 46-A.Morris left tackle to SF 42 for 2 yards (44-M.Golden).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 34 for -8 yards (sack split by 95-R.Gunter and 36-B.Baker).
- (2:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to ARI 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.70 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Outside run | -0.08 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.27 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| Quick out | -0.76 pts |
| QB keep | -0.76 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.82 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.95 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Play action | -2.17 pts |
| Curl route | -2.28 pts |
| End-around | -4.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.60 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.35 pts |
| Deep post | -7.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.94 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.70 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.