Dolphins vs Raiders — Week 3, 2018
The Dolphins took over leading 21-17 with 2:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 28, Raiders 20. Dolphins won 28-20 — the drive scored.
Dolphins ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 20, 2:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.2% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 83.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:54) 21-F.Gore up the middle to MIA 26 for 6 yards (98-F.Rucker; 27-R.Nelson).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 15-A.Wilson for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.88 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.88 pts |
| Outside run | +0.17 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.15 pts |
| QB keep | -0.33 pts |
| Inside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Quick out | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.50 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Curl route | -1.69 pts |
| Play action | -1.70 pts |
| End-around | -4.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.14 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.86 pts |
| Deep post | -6.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.47 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.