Jaguars vs Steelers — Week 11, 2018
The Jaguars took over leading 16-13 with 2:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 16, Steelers 20. Steelers won 20-16 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.0% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 80.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:22) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 29 for 4 yards (97-C.Heyward; 21-S.Davis).
- (2:00) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 30 for 1 yard (21-S.Davis).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 31 for 1 yard (98-V.Williams).
- (1:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to PIT 32, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.57 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.47 pts |
| Outside run | +0.32 pts |
| QB keep | +0.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.11 pts |
| Quick out | -0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Inside run | -0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Curl route | -1.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
| Play action | -1.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.69 pts |
| End-around | -3.74 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.36 pts |
| Deep post | -6.22 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.91 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.