Giants vs Buccaneers — Week 11, 2018
The Giants took over leading 38-35 with 2:20 left, 1st & 10 at the Buccaneers 44, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Giants 38, Buccaneers 35. Giants won 38-35 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In Buccaneers territory, 2:20 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.2% for Giants. Our model starts at 87.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:20) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to TB 41 for 3 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul).
- (2:00) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to TB 41 for no gain (91-B.Allen, 26-A.Adams).
- (1:17) 26-S.Barkley left end to TB 41 for no gain (26-A.Adams).
- (:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.59 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.59 pts |
| Outside run | +0.12 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Inside run | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| QB keep | -0.51 pts |
| Quick out | -0.51 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Play action | -1.92 pts |
| Curl route | -2.00 pts |
| End-around | -4.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.19 pts |
| Deep post | -7.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.89 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.