Dolphins vs Bills — Week 13, 2018
The Dolphins took over leading 21-17 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 21, Bills 17. Dolphins won 21-17 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 45, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.0% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 87.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) 32-K.Drake right guard to MIA 45 for no gain (98-S.Lotulelei).
- (3:30) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 83-N.O'Leary pushed ob at BUF 46 for 9 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 27-K.Ballage. 27-K.Ballage left tackle to BUF 49 for -3 yards (58-M.Milano).
- (2:33) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to BUF 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.83 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.63 pts |
| Outside run | +0.02 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Quick out | -0.66 pts |
| QB keep | -0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.72 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Play action | -2.11 pts |
| Curl route | -2.23 pts |
| End-around | -4.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.36 pts |
| Deep post | -7.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.83 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.