Commanders vs Jaguars — Week 15, 2018
The Commanders took over tied at 13 with 2:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 16, Jaguars 13. Commanders won 16-13 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 45, 2:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.0% for Commanders. Our model starts at 67.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 26-A.Peterson up the middle to WAS 49 for 4 yards (50-Tel.Smith).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass short left to 26-A.Peterson to JAX 44 for 7 yards (21-A.Bouye; 95-A.Jones).
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 26-A.Peterson left end to JAX 29 for 15 yards (50-Tel.Smith).
- (1:15) 26-A.Peterson up the middle to JAX 22 for 7 yards (50-Tel.Smith).
- (1:10) 26-A.Peterson up the middle to JAX 21 for 1 yard (44-M.Jack; 93-C.Campbell).
- (1:05) 26-A.Peterson up the middle to JAX 17 for 4 yards (90-T.Bryan).
- (:22) 8-J.Johnson kneels to JAX 19 for -2 yards.
- (:04) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.48 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.13 pts |
| QB keep | +0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.72 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.69 pts |
| Quick out | +0.34 pts |
| Outside run | +0.31 pts |
| Curl route | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Play action | -0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.41 pts |
| Spike it | -2.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.89 pts |
| End-around | -2.98 pts |
| Deep post | -3.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.18 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.48 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.