Vikings vs Packers — Week 2, 2018
The Vikings took over tied at 29 with 3:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 29, Packers 29. Tied 29-29 — the drive missed field goal.
Vikings ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 3:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.7% for Vikings. Our model starts at 54.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-S.Diggs to MIN 32 for 12 yards (38-T.Williams).
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen to GB 43 for 25 yards (29-K.Brice).
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph pushed ob at GB 35 for 8 yards (29-K.Brice).
- (2:21) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 14-S.Diggs to GB 36 for -1 yards (23-J.Alexander).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-S.Diggs to GB 30 for 6 yards (50-B.Martinez).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 25-L.Murray left guard to GB 21 for 9 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix).
- (:32) 25-L.Murray right guard to GB 17 for 4 yards (37-J.Jackson).
- (:04) 7-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.06 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.06 pts |
| QB keep | +0.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.76 pts |
| Curl route | +0.58 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.57 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Outside run | +0.00 pts |
| Play action | -0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.15 pts |
| End-around | -2.58 pts |
| Deep post | -2.68 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.08 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.