Cowboys vs Texans — Week 5, 2018
The Cowboys took over tied at 16 with 3:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 1 timeout in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 16, Texans 16. Tied 16-16 — the drive turned it over.
Cowboys ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 45, 3:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 53.9% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 62.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:25) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 47 for 2 yards (98-D.Reader).
- (2:46) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 38 for -9 yards (99-J.Watt).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end pushed ob at DAL 45 for 7 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
- (1:49) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback. PENALTY on HOU-5-J.Webb, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 20.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.06 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.06 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.94 pts |
| QB keep | +0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.67 pts |
| Outside run | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.29 pts |
| Curl route | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Play action | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.72 pts |
| Spike it | -2.76 pts |
| End-around | -2.76 pts |
| Deep post | -3.66 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.87 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.