Seahawks vs 49ers — Week 15, 2018
The Seahawks took over tied at 23 with 4:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 23, 49ers 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive turned it over.
Seahawks ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 34, 4:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 49.5% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 59.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson right end to SEA 36 for 2 yards.
- (3:43) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson up the middle to SEA 40 for 4 yards (91-A.Armstead; 99-D.Buckner).
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 89-D.Baldwin.
- (2:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.83 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.83 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.71 pts |
| QB keep | +0.61 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.45 pts |
| Quick out | +0.11 pts |
| Outside run | +0.10 pts |
| Curl route | +0.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.25 pts |
| Play action | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.73 pts |
| End-around | -2.80 pts |
| Spike it | -2.87 pts |
| Deep post | -3.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.74 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.