Cowboys vs Lions — Week 4, 2018
The Cowboys took over trailing 24-23 with 2:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 26, Lions 24. Cowboys won 26-24 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 2:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 51.8% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 47.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-G.Swaim to DAL 32 for 7 yards (27-G.Quin).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott to DAL 24 for -8 yards (93-D.Hand). FUMBLES (93-D.Hand), and recovers at DAL 19. 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 87-G.Swaim.
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 17-A.Hurns to DAL 41 for 9 yards (39-J.Agnew).
- (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Gallup (27-G.Quin).
- (1:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 21-E.Elliott to DET 25 for 34 yards (40-J.Davis).
- (:39) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to DET 22 for 3 yards (27-G.Quin).
- (:35) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DET 21 for 1 yard (27-G.Quin; 91-A.Robinson).
- (:32) 4-D.Prescott left guard to DET 20 for 1 yard (92-S.Williams).
- (:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.67 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.52 pts |
| QB keep | +1.47 pts |
| Quick out | +0.77 pts |
| Play action | +0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.63 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.27 pts |
| Outside run | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.75 pts |
| Deep post | -0.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.98 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| End-around | -2.13 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.83 pts |
| Spike it | -2.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.