Cardinals vs Bears — Week 3, 2018
The Cardinals took over trailing 16-14 with 4:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 14, Bears 16. Bears won 16-14 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cardinals ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 45.3% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 40.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:31) ARI #3-Rosen in at QB. 31-D.Johnson up the middle to ARI 26 for 1 yard (52-K.Mack).
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle to 84-J.Gresham to ARI 35 for 9 yards (38-A.Amos).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass incomplete deep left to 10-C.Williams.
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 13-C.Kirk to 50 for 10 yards (22-K.Toliver II).
- (2:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass incomplete short right [52-K.Mack].
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 10-C.Williams to CHI 42 for 8 yards (22-K.Toliver II).
- (2:00) 29-C.Edmonds up the middle to CHI 45 for -3 yards (98-B.Nichols).
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 37-B.Callahan [95-R.Robertson-Harris] at CHI 32. 37-B.Callahan to CHI 32 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.98 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.98 pts |
| Curl route | +0.86 pts |
| QB keep | +0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.79 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Play action | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.13 pts |
| Outside run | -0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -1.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.38 pts |
| Deep post | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| End-around | -2.16 pts |
| Spike it | -2.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.