Eagles vs Falcons — Week 1, 2018
The Eagles took over trailing 12-10 with 4:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 46, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 18, Falcons 12. Eagles won 18-12 — the drive scored.
Eagles ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. Near midfield, 4:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 51.4% for Eagles. Our model starts at 47.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:51) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 13-N.Agholor pushed ob at PHI 48 for 2 yards (21-D.Trufant).
- (4:48) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete deep left to 14-M.Wallace (23-R.Alford).
- (4:41) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at ATL 43 for 9 yards (21-D.Trufant).
- (4:32) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at ATL 37 for 6 yards (37-R.Allen).
- (4:24) (Shotgun) 26-J.Ajayi up the middle to ATL 35 for 2 yards (97-G.Jarrett). ATL-98-T.McKinley was injured during the play.
- (3:57) (Shotgun) 30-C.Clement right tackle to ATL 14 for 21 yards (27-D.Kazee).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Clement up the middle to ATL 11 for 3 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (2:25) 26-J.Ajayi left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 26-J.Ajayi rushes right end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.94 pts |
| QB keep | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.68 pts |
| Curl route | +0.58 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Outside run | +0.00 pts |
| Play action | -0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.60 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.88 pts |
| Deep post | -2.23 pts |
| End-around | -2.26 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.57 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.