Bears vs Dolphins — Week 6, 2018
The Bears took over tied at 28 with 4:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Bears 28, Dolphins 31. Dolphins won 31-28 — the drive missed field goal.
Bears ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 4:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 33.4% for Bears. Our model starts at 52.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:59) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 80-T.Burton ran ob at CHI 25 for 5 yards (23-C.Tankersley).
- (4:55) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard right guard to CHI 44 for 19 yards (20-R.Jones; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (4:19) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard up the middle to MIA 41 for 15 yards (55-J.Baker).
- (3:39) (Shotgun) 29-T.Cohen up the middle to MIA 39 for 2 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 30-B.Cunningham right guard to MIA 35 for 4 yards (20-R.Jones, 47-K.Alonso).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard right guard to MIA 35 for no gain (50-A.Branch; 22-T.McDonald).
- (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.68 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.68 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.67 pts |
| QB keep | +0.50 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.33 pts |
| Curl route | +0.08 pts |
| Quick out | +0.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.11 pts |
| Outside run | -0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.37 pts |
| Play action | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.74 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.18 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.52 pts |
| End-around | -2.73 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep post | -3.15 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.