Chargers vs Steelers — Week 13, 2018
The Chargers took over tied at 30 with 4:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 33, Steelers 30. Chargers won 33-30 — the drive scored.
Chargers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 4:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.7% for Chargers. Our model starts at 55.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to 13-K.Allen. Coverage by 54-Fort.
- (4:06) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 35 for 10 yards (28-M.Hilton, 54-L.Fort) [98-V.Williams].
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard to LAC 37 for 2 yards (54-L.Fort, 48-B.Dupree).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to LAC 49 for 12 yards (23-J.Haden, 21-S.Davis).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 32-J.Jackson up the middle to PIT 40 for 11 yards (21-S.Davis, 79-J.Hargrave).
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 32-J.Jackson left guard to PIT 37 for 3 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler pushed ob at PIT 34 for 3 yards (48-B.Dupree).
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen to PIT 22 for 12 yards (21-S.Davis) [79-J.Hargrave].
- (:27) (Shotgun) 32-J.Jackson right tackle to PIT 21 for 1 yard (21-S.Davis).
- (:21) (Shotgun) 32-J.Jackson up the middle to PIT 21 for no gain (97-C.Heyward; 34-T.Edmunds).
- (:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. Penalty on PIT-25-A.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.93 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.93 pts |
| QB keep | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.59 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.35 pts |
| Curl route | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.07 pts |
| Outside run | +0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.20 pts |
| Play action | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.06 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.42 pts |
| End-around | -2.68 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Deep post | -3.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.