Eagles vs Rams — Week 15, 2018
The Eagles took over leading 30-23 with 4:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 30, Rams 23. Eagles won 30-23 — the drive turnover.
Eagles ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 17, 4:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.7% for Eagles. Our model starts at 90.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 28-W.Smallwood up the middle to PHI 18 for 1 yard (93-N.Suh; 22-M.Peters).
- (3:58) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 17-A.Jeffery to PHI 20 for 7 yards (58-C.Littleton). PENALTY on PHI-65-L.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 20.
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz.
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 28-W.Smallwood to PHI 15 for 5 yards (23-N.Robey; 56-D.Fowler).
- (3:03) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to LA 33, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-J.Natson to LA 36 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PHI-57-D.Alexander at LA 36. 57-D.Alexander to LA 36 for no gain (19-J.Natson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.52 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -1.14 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.21 pts |
| QB keep | -1.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Play action | -2.71 pts |
| Curl route | -2.98 pts |
| End-around | -4.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.01 pts |
| Deep post | -8.50 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.75 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.