Chiefs vs Steelers — Week 2, 2018
The Chiefs took over leading 42-37 with 1:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 42, Steelers 37. Chiefs won 42-37 — the drive time expired.
Chiefs ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 1:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.8% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 90.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:59) 27-K.Hunt left tackle to KC 34 for 9 yards (98-V.Williams, 25-A.Burns).
- (1:48) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 37 for 3 yards (98-V.Williams, 24-C.Sensabaugh).
- (1:44) 15-P.Mahomes FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 35, and recovers at KC 35. 15-P.Mahomes to KC 35 for no gain (79-J.Hargrave).
- (1:02) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 38 for 3 yards (91-S.Tuitt).
- (:57) 32-S.Ware left guard to KC 41 for 3 yards (28-M.Hilton).
- (:05) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to PIT 45 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.40 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| Quick out | -0.72 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.77 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.83 pts |
| QB keep | -0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.95 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Play action | -2.28 pts |
| Curl route | -2.47 pts |
| End-around | -4.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.79 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.63 pts |
| Deep post | -8.10 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.40 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.