Commanders vs Giants — Week 8, 2018
The Commanders took over leading 13-6 with 4:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 20, Giants 13. Commanders won 20-13 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.5% for Commanders. Our model starts at 91.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:08) 26-A.Peterson left guard to WAS 27 for 2 yards (97-J.Mauro). PENALTY on NYG-95-B.Hill, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 27.
- (4:03) 26-A.Peterson right guard to WAS 36 for 4 yards (95-B.Hill, 54-O.Vernon).
- (3:16) 26-A.Peterson right tackle for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYG-36-S.Chandler, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.38 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.54 pts |
| Quick out | -0.96 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.04 pts |
| QB keep | -1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Play action | -2.60 pts |
| Curl route | -2.87 pts |
| End-around | -4.88 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.95 pts |
| Deep post | -8.48 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.70 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.