49ers vs Packers — Week 6, 2018
The 49ers took over leading 30-23 with 4:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 30, Packers 33. Packers won 33-30 — the drive turned it over.
49ers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 23, 4:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.0% for 49ers. Our model starts at 91.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:06) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to SF 22 for -1 yards (50-B.Martinez).
- (4:01) 3-C.Beathard scrambles left end to SF 23 for 1 yard (51-K.Fackrell).
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 11 for -12 yards (52-C.Matthews).
- (3:08) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to GB 42, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.33 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.62 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.56 pts |
| Quick out | -0.98 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.06 pts |
| QB keep | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -2.62 pts |
| Curl route | -2.89 pts |
| End-around | -4.91 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.97 pts |
| Deep post | -8.52 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.74 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.62 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.