Bengals vs Raiders — Week 15, 2018
The Bengals took over leading 23-16 with 4:53 left, 1st & 10 at the Raiders 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 30, Raiders 16. Bengals won 30-16 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Raiders territory, 4:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.9% for Bengals. Our model starts at 94.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:53) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel left end to LV 15 for 6 yards (55-M.Lee).
- (4:10) 28-J.Mixon right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.11 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.11 pts |
| Field goal | -0.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.79 pts |
| Quick out | -1.15 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.19 pts |
| QB keep | -1.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.91 pts |
| Curl route | -3.29 pts |
| End-around | -5.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.31 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.12 pts |
| Deep post | -9.19 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.